On this page
What hold is
Hold is the built-in margin in a market: how much the implied probabilities of every side add up to beyond 100%. At one book, −110 / −110 holds 4.76%. Across books, you can combine the best price on each side, and the combined hold is often far lower. A low-hold market is one where betting both sides costs you very little.
Live The Low Hold screen ranks markets by combined hold at the books you pick, on net prices after fees. The hold calculator computes the hold for any prices you enter.
The math and the bands
Hold = Σ 1 ÷ d_best,i − 1 (best net decimal per side, distinct books)
| Hold | Band |
|---|---|
| below 0% | Arbitrage |
| 0% to 1% | Near-arb |
| 1% to 2% | Low hold |
| 2% and up | Standard |
Worked example
One book, −110 / −110: 0.5238 + 0.5238 − 1 = 4.76% (standard)
Best prices −105 / +100 at two books: 0.5122 + 0.5000 − 1 = 1.22% (low hold)
Best prices −102 / +101: 0.5050 + 0.4975 − 1 = 0.25% (near-arb)
On the −105 / +100 market, staking $50.60 on the favourite and $49.40 on the underdog returns $98.80 either way. Betting both sides of $100 costs you $1.20, compared with $4.55 at a single −110 / −110 book.
Why you'd use it
- Converting promos. A free bet or a rollover requirement is worth the most when the market you clear it on costs the least. Pair it with the bonus conversion calculator.
- Hedging. When you want out of a position, the cheapest market to hedge in loses the least.
- Moving money between books with minimal loss.
- A sanity check on the fair price. In a low-hold market, the devig method barely matters, so the fair is well pinned.
Common prices and what they cost
The cost of betting both sides of a $100 total is 100 − 100 ÷ (1 + hold): slightly less than the hold itself, because the stakes are split to pay the same either way.
| Prices | Hold | Cost of $100 both ways |
|---|---|---|
| −105 / −105 | 2.44% | $2.38 |
| −110 / −110 | 4.76% | $4.55 |
| −115 / −105 | 4.71% | $4.50 |
| −120 / +100 | 4.55% | $4.35 |
| −200 / +170 | 3.70% | $3.57 |
| −300 / +240 | 4.41% | $4.23 |
Single-book markets typically sit between 2% and 5%. Combining the best price on each side across books is how you get below 2%. A hold is a property of the prices, not of the sport: the same two numbers hold the same anywhere.
Worked example: a free bet on a low-hold market
You have a $100 free bet where the stake isn't returned, only the winnings. You place it on a +250 side, then hedge the other side with real money so you collect the same amount either way. The hedge stake is the free bet's winnings divided by the hedge's decimal odds.
Free-bet winnings if it hits: $100 × (3.50 − 1) = $250
Hedge at −300 (1.3333): stake $250 ÷ 1.3333 = $187.50 → locked $62.50 (62.5% conversion)
Hedge at −280 (1.3571): stake $250 ÷ 1.3571 = $184.21 → locked $65.79 (65.8% conversion)
The +250 / −300 pair holds 3.57%; the +250 / −280 pair holds 2.26%. The lower-hold pair keeps $3.29 more of the same free bet. That's the whole case for hunting low hold when you convert promos: every point of hold comes out of your conversion. The bonus conversion calculator runs this for any prices and bonus type.
Low hold and the fair price
A low combined hold also tells you the fair price is well pinned. When the best prices on both sides nearly add up to 100%, every devig method lands within a fraction of a point, and the books' disagreement is small. That makes low-hold markets a good place to sanity-check a fair before trusting it on a related market. The reverse is a warning: a market where even the best prices hold 5% leaves more room for the fair to be wrong.
How to read the screen
Low Hold shares its layout with Arbitrage. Rows sort by hold, lowest first, and the top bar adds a hold filter (Any hold, Hold ≤ 0% up to Hold ≤ 3%) and a Show fair odds switch.
| Column | What it shows |
|---|---|
| HOLD % | The combined hold with its band tag: ARB, Near-arb, Low or 2%+. |
| EVENT / MARKET | Start time, matchup, league, and the market with any alt or same venue badge. |
| BOOKS | The best price on each side with its book, net for exchange sides, Liq $ where we hold the order book, and with Show fair odds on, the no-vig fair price of the pair under each side. |
| BET SIZE | The stake per side for your Target bet, editable. |
| RESULT | What betting both sides returns either way (a negative hold), or the cost of the hold in dollars. |
Clicking a row opens the same stake calculator as Arbitrage, with Copy stakes and the math. Take the pair to the bonus conversion calculator when you are converting a free bet.
Pitfalls
- Stale lines. A suspiciously low hold is often one side that hasn't refreshed. Confirm both prices.
- Thin exchange sides. An exchange price that makes the hold low may be good for only a small amount.
- Different rules. Both sides must settle on the same rules (overtime, player participation).
- Low hold is not edge. A 1% hold still costs 1%. It's a cheap market, not a profitable one, unless you bring a promo.
Open the tool
Free with a free account during launch. Sign in with Discord.