Bet tracker and closing-line value

What the tracker is for

Results are slow to tell you anything. A bettor with a real 3% edge can lose for months. Closing-line value (CLV) is faster: it compares the price you took with the fair price at the close, the market's final and best-informed view. The bet tracker will log your bets and measure both.

Live Today, + Track on any +EV row (and on the dashboard and in the detail drawer) saves that price to a list on this device.

Coming soon The full tracker: manual entry, CSV import, bankroll, ROI by book, market and EV bucket, and CLV against our closing snapshot.

How CLV is measured

Our collector is pregame only and keeps the last pregame snapshot before each game starts as the closing line. The closing fair price is the devigged consensus at that snapshot.

Worked example

You take an underdog at +110 (decimal 2.10, break-even 47.62%). By the close, the market's fair probability for that side is 50.5%.

A second bet at −105 (1.9524) closing at a 52% fair:

Both bets beat the close, whatever their results. Over hundreds of bets, consistently positive CLV is strong evidence you are getting good prices.

What gets logged

The engine already logs every edge our tools flag with these fields; the tracker is planned to record your own bets the same way:

A bet taken at +120 that loses still records its CLV. If the closing fair was 47%, the CLV is 0.47 × 2.20 − 1 = +3.40% even though the profit is −1 unit. If it wins, the profit is +1.20 units and the CLV is the same +3.40%. CLV grades the decision; profit grades the luck.

Reading CLV over many bets

One bet's CLV tells you little; the average over many bets tells you a lot. A few habits help:

1. Log the price you actually got. Not the price you saw. If the book moved before you clicked, record the worse number.
2. Log every bet. Leaving out the ones you regret makes the average meaningless.
3. Split by market. Game lines close on far more information than props. A positive average on game lines is stronger evidence than the same average on thin props.
4. Compare CLV with results only over large samples. If your CLV is positive and your results lag, variance is the likely reason. If both are negative, the prices you take aren't good enough.

Until the full tracker ships, you can compute CLV for any bet with the no-vig calculator: enter the closing prices on both sides to get the closing fair probability, then compare it with your price's break-even from the implied odds calculator.

The public track record

Coming soon The same machinery grades every edge our tools flag. Each one is logged at first sight, with the price a member could have taken then, and later graded with its CLV and result. The record will be public and will hold settled results only, never a live or pregame edge. It will report CLV and ROI by EV bucket, devig method and venue, losses included.

Pitfalls

• Device storage. Tracked bets live in this browser until accounts sync. Clearing site data clears them.
• Thin closing markets. A close built from one or two books is a weak yardstick; props close thinner than game lines.
• Limits. Positive CLV doesn't help if a book won't take your size.
• Short samples. A few dozen bets can't separate skill from luck, on CLV or on results.