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What fair value settings control
Every edge on the site is a comparison between a price and a fair price. The fair price is only as good as the books that build it and the way their vig is removed. The Fair value & filters sheet is where you control both, plus which rows are shown. It opens from Filters (n) in the top bar of the +EV finder and the Odds Screen, and the same defaults live in the Fair value section of the Account page. One setting applies to every tool.
The sections of the sheet
Presets
Presets decide which books build the fair and how hard each pulls:
| Preset | Books and weights |
|---|---|
| All books (default) | Every sportsbook, exchange and prediction market at weight 1. |
| Sharp only | Pinnacle 1, Novig 3, Kalshi 2.5, ProphetX 1.5, Polymarket 1, the European exchanges 1. |
| Pinnacle only | Pinnacle alone. |
| Exchanges | Exchanges and prediction markets, weight 1 each. |
| Custom | Your own weights per book. |
The Sharp weights are starting values. We plan to re-fit them from our own graded results once the public track record has enough settled bets.
Your presets
"Save current" stores the method, preset, weights, Required book and Min books under a name on this device. The star makes a saved preset the default when the site opens.
Devig method
Choose multiplicative, additive, power, Shin, probit (the default), worst case or best case. Each removes a book's vig differently; the differences are small near 50/50 and real on lopsided markets. Devig methods compared walks through all of them.
Books and weights
Untick a book to leave it out of the fair; a weight of 3 pulls three times as hard as 1. Editing a weight switches the preset to Custom. Pick'em apps and brokers never feed the fair price.
Rows
- Required book: a row needs a quote from this book at that line.
- Min books: how many books at that exact line must back the fair (default 3).
- Min EV %: hide rows below this EV (default 1%).
- Start window: any time, next 3, 12 or 24 hours, or next 3 days.
- Min odds and Max odds: an American-odds range (default max +400).
- Show flagged prices: off by default. A flagged (off-market) price is one where the book's own two-way price disagrees with the market by 6 to 12 points, often a stale line or a mislabelled side.
Apply saves and re-prices every row; Reset to defaults restores the defaults above.
Worked example: same bet, four settings
Take the underdog from the +EV finder guide: +125 at Fliff, with Pinnacle −120 / +110, FanDuel −125 / +105, DraftKings −122 / +102 and Novig −116 / +112 building the fair.
| Setting | Books used | Fair (dog) | EV at +125 |
|---|---|---|---|
| All books · probit | 4, equal weight | 46.79% | +5.27% |
| All books · multiplicative | 4, equal weight | 46.87% | +5.46% |
| Sharp only · probit | Novig 3, Pinnacle 1 | 46.68% | +5.04% |
| Pinnacle only · probit | Pinnacle | 46.54% | +4.70% |
Sharp fair = (3 × 46.73% + 1 × 46.54%) ÷ 4 ≈ 46.68%
EV = 0.4668 × 2.25 − 1 = +5.04%
The bet is +EV under every setting here, but the size of the edge moves by almost a point. That spread is a useful honesty check: an edge that only appears under one generous setting is weaker than one that survives all of them.
Second example: the outlier guard
Five books price a favourite: Pinnacle −150 / +130, FanDuel −155 / +130, DraftKings −148 / +125, BetMGM −152 / +128, and BetRivers at −120 / +100, a price that hasn't caught up with the market.
Devigged favourite (probit): Pinnacle 58.27%, FanDuel 58.67%, DraftKings 57.63%, BetMGM 58.24%, BetRivers 52.28%
BetRivers sits more than 3 standard deviations from the median of the other four → dropped
Fair with the guard: 58.20% / 41.80%; without it: 57.02% / 42.98%
An underdog at +140: EV = 0.4180 × 2.40 − 1 = +0.32% with the guard, +3.16% without it
One stale book would have manufactured almost three points of fake edge. The guard compares each book with the others, leaving that book out of its own yardstick, so a single outlier can't hide by inflating the spread. It only runs when at least three books are present, which is one more reason Min books defaults to 3.
Pitfalls
- One-book presets and Min books. An exact-line fair needs at least Min books books inside the preset. Pinnacle only with Min books at 3 hides most exact-line rows; lower Min books if you use it, and accept the weaker evidence.
- Best case is for comparison. It picks the most generous fair for the side you're betting. Don't size bets off it.
- Stale reference books. A sharp book that hasn't refreshed can drag the fair the wrong way. The outlier guard drops a book far from the others, but only when at least three books are present.
- Settings live on this device. Until accounts sync, your presets and weights are stored in this browser only.
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