Pick'em break-even calculator

The win rate each leg needs on PrizePicks, Underdog, Dabble, Betr and ParlayPlay entries, from each app's published payout table, plus your entry's EV from the legs' fair chances.

FreeNo account neededSame math as our tools

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Result

updates as you type

Run this math on every line, automatically

Fantasy Props prices every pick'em leg against the market's fair line with these same tables, and builds the best slips.

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How it works

Pick'em apps pay a fixed multiple of your entry depending on how many picks hit. That payout table sets the break-even each leg needs. With one paying tier (a "power" or "all-in" entry) it is simple:

p* = M^−1/N (M = the payout multiple, N = picks)

Flex entries pay on several tiers: p* solves Σ C(N,k) p^k(1 − p)^N−k M_k = 1

The tables are each app's published house tables (the same ones our engine uses). DraftKings Pick6 does not publish a fixed table, so it is not priced. Enter each leg's fair chance (from devigged sportsbook prices) and the calculator computes your entry's exact expected return with the Poisson-binomial distribution of hits.

Worked example

PrizePicks' published table, every entry, easiest first:

Entry	Break-even per leg	≈ odds
6-pick Flex	54.21%	−118.4
5-pick Flex	54.25%	−118.6
6-pick Power	54.66%	−120.6
5-pick Power	54.93%	−121.9
3-pick Power	55.03%	−122.4
4-pick Flex	55.03%	−122.4
4-pick Power	56.23%	−128.5
2-pick Power	57.74%	−136.6
3-pick Flex	57.74%	−136.6
2-pick Flex	61.80%	−161.8

6-pick Flex pays 25× for 6/6, 2× for 5/6, 0.4× for 4/6

Break-even p* solves Σ C(6,k) p^k(1 − p)^6−k M_k = 1 → 54.21%

Six legs at a 56% fair chance each: expected return 1.1760× → EV +17.60%

A leg priced around −119 at fair is right at the 6-pick Flex break-even, which is why small edges per leg add up only across many entries.

Things to watch

Payout tables change. Apps revise tables and run promos; check the app before you enter.
Correlated legs. Two legs from the same game are not independent. The math here assumes they are.
Per-pick multipliers (goblins, demons, Underdog's adjusted picks) change the payout; enter their product as the multiplier.
State rules decide which entry types you can play.

Frequently asked questions

What win rate do I need on PrizePicks?

It depends on the entry. On the published table a 6-pick Flex needs about 54.2% per leg and a 5-pick Flex about 54.3%; Power entries need more. The table on the calculator lists every entry, easiest first.

Why is DraftKings Pick6 missing?

Pick6 is peer-to-peer and does not publish a fixed payout table, so there is no honest break-even to compute. We never guess.

How does a profit boost change the break-even?

A boost raises every paying tier: M → 1 + (M − 1)(1 + b). That lowers the per-leg break-even.

Where do the leg probabilities come from?

From devigged sportsbook and exchange prices for the same player line. Fantasy Props does this automatically for every app line; here you can enter your own.

Related calculators

No-vig fair odds calculatorFair odds with five devig methods side by side, 2- to 6-way markets.Parlay calculatorCombined odds and payout for up to 12 legs, plus EV from fair %.Expected value (EV) calculatorEV, edge and Kelly from a fair %, fair odds or a two-sided market with the vig removed.Implied probability calculatorBreak-even win % for any price; add the other side for the no-vig fair.

Learn more

Pick'em optimizer: pricing PrizePicks, Underdog and DabbleEach app's payout table sets the win rate every leg needs. Fair probabilities from the betting market tell you which legs clear it.Devig methods compared: multiplicative, additive, power, Shin, probitFive ways to take the vig out of a price, when they agree, when they don't, and which one we use by default.