Pick'em optimizer: pricing PrizePicks, Underdog and Dabble

What the pick'em optimizer is

Pick'em apps don't post odds. They post lines and pay a fixed multiplier if your picks hit. That payout table decides the probability each leg needs to break even. The optimizer compares each leg's fair probability, taken from sportsbooks and exchanges after the vig is removed, against that break-even, and prices whole entries exactly.

Live The Fantasy Props screen (/#/fantasy, under Find edges) does this for every pick'em line from one app at a time: each leg's fair chance against the app's break-even, your own slip priced exactly, and the best slips by EV. The pick'em break-even calculator uses the same payout tables.

Break-evens from the payout tables

For a Power (all-or-nothing) entry of N picks paying M, the per-leg break-even is M^(−1/N). For a Flex entry, it's the probability p where the expected payout across 0..N hits equals 1. From the published tables we hold:

DraftKings Pick6 doesn't publish a guaranteed payout table, so we never price it. Underdog's per-pick multipliers are applied by multiplying the payout (our reading of their rules, not a published formula). The odds feed carries placeholder pick'em odds for every app; they are never used, because the payout table is the price.

Worked example: a 6-pick PrizePicks entry

Six legs with fair probabilities 57%, 56%, 56%, 55%, 55% and 54%. Hits follow a Poisson-binomial distribution, computed exactly:

Every leg here clears the 54.21% Flex break-even, and Flex is the better entry for these legs. The same three strongest legs as a 3-pick Power entry return +7.25%; as a 3-pick Flex they lose 4.80%, because 3-pick Flex needs 57.74% per leg.

Boosts change the bar. With a 30% winnings boost (we scale each paying multiplier as 1 + (M − 1) × 1.3), the PrizePicks 6-pick Power break-even falls from 54.66% to 52.37%.

Second example: entry type and a weak leg

Three legs at 56% each on Underdog:

The same three legs are worth far more as a Standard entry, because 3-pick Flex has a higher break-even (55.39% per leg) than 3-pick Standard (53.58%). The entry type is half the decision.

Now a weak leg. Take the six PrizePicks legs from the example above, but make the sixth leg 50% instead of 54%:

Adding a below-break-even leg to fill a bigger entry cost five points of EV. More legs only help when every leg clears its bar.

Boosts are powerful when they apply. A 30% winnings boost on the original six legs as a Power entry lifts the payout from 37.5× to 48.45× and the EV from +9.50% to +41.47%. Check the boost's terms: caps on the boosted amount and eligible entry types change the math.

How to read the screen

• App: the gold selector picks PrizePicks, Underdog, DK Pick6 or Dabble, with each app's leg count. Pick6 reads no payout table and its lines aren't priced. Dabble lines appear only when the odds feed carries them, so its list can be empty.
• League and Stat narrow the list; search players with the / key. Views saves your filters on this device.
• Profit boost: Off, 30%, 50%, 75% or 100%. Every break-even, slip and ranking is re-priced with it.
• Near or above break-even: off by default, so every leg is listed, sorted by % to hit. On keeps only green and amber legs.
• The line beside them sums up the app, for example N legs above PrizePicks' 54.2% break-even right now · best entry 6-pick Flex.

Fair chances use your Fair value settings (devig method, preset, minimum books). My books never changes them; the sportsbook columns are there for comparison.

Your slip and Best slips

Your slip holds 2 to 6 legs. For that many legs it lists every entry type the app offers (Power and Flex, Standard and Flex, All-in and Hedge) with its break-even per leg, its return multiple and its EV, computed from the exact hits distribution above. If two legs share a game, a warning says the EV assumes independent legs and can be off in either direction.

Best slips ranks 2- to 6-leg slips by EV from the legs at or near break-even. Same-game pairs are left out unless you turn on Allow same-game legs, and then they're tagged. Use this slip loads one into your slip. If nothing clears break-even it says so instead of padding the list.

Nothing on the screen places or links an entry. Build it in the app yourself and confirm the lines there.

How to use it

1. Pick the app and set any boost you have, so the break-even is the one you'll actually face.
2. Scan % to hit. Green legs clear the app's best entry; check how many sportsbooks back each one in its columns.
3. Build the slip. Add your strongest legs with + and compare the entry types in Your slip, or start from Best slips.
4. Drop weak legs. One leg below the break-even can turn a +EV entry negative; a smaller entry with only your strongest legs can be worth more, as the examples above show.

Pitfalls

• Same-game correlation. Entry math assumes legs are independent. Two legs from the same game often aren't. We flag them but don't model the correlation.
• Stale lines. The fair for a leg comes from sportsbook prices that may have moved. Re-check before you submit.
• Payout tables change. Apps revise them; confirm the payout in the app before you submit.
• Thin props. A leg backed by one or two books has a weak fair. Count the sportsbook columns with a price.
• State rules. Entry types differ by state. Underdog's Classic mode is the only one in Georgia, for example.