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What a prop discrepancy is
Most books post a player's prop at the same or a neighbouring line. A discrepancy is a book or pick'em app whose line sits away from the rest: a points line at 22.5 when the market is near 24.5, for example. An Over at a lower line needs less to cash, and an Under at a higher line has more room. These are line gaps, not price gaps.
Live The Prop Discrepancies screen, under Follow the money, lines up every book's and app's line for each player and stat, prices each line on the fair ladder and ranks rows by the fair chance the best play clears.
Which lines count and how rows are ranked
Main line = a sportsbook's most balanced two-sided point, used only if its no-vig over is 38–62%
Market avg = mean of the sportsbooks' main lines
Fair line = the 50/50 point of the fair ladder fitted across every book's lines and prices
Best play = the line x whose fair P(over x) is furthest from 50%, on its easier side; To hit = that probability
Only sportsbooks quoting both sides count; one-sided (suspended) markets, alternate-ladder prices and thin exchange quotes are never main lines. A book quoting only a far, heavily juiced point has none: its gap is already priced in. Markets where every book hangs the same line are skipped. Pick'em apps (PrizePicks, Underdog, DK Pick6, Dabble) contribute their posted standard line.
Worked example
A player's points prop. Main lines: Caesars 24.5 (−110/−110), DraftKings 24.5 (−115/−105), FanDuel 24.5 (−110/−110), Pinnacle 24.5 (−104/−112) and BetMGM 25.5 (−105/−115). Alternates (DraftKings 22.5 at −160/+130, FanDuel 26.5 at +125/−155) feed the fair ladder only. PrizePicks posts 22.5.
Market avg = (24.5 × 4 + 25.5) ÷ 5 = 24.7; fair line = 24.5
Fair ladder (probit devig): P(over 22.5) = 59.0%, P(over 24.5) = 50.6%, P(over 25.5) = 46.4%
PrizePicks 22.5: 59.0% is 9.0 points from 50% → best play OVER 22.5 · PrizePicks, To hit 59.0%
BetMGM 25.5: Under 53.6%, 3.6 points from 50% → easiest under, not the best play
A 59.0% leg is not automatically a good bet. It has to beat the per-leg break-even of the entry you play: about 54.2% for a PrizePicks 6-pick Flex, 57.7% for a 2-pick Power.
How to read the screen
- Book: the gold chip picks All books, My books or one book. It filters which rows and book columns show; it never changes the fair.
- League and Stat narrow the list; 2+ books sets the minimum sportsbooks, 2 to 5.
- Mult. YES / NO. YES lets an app line paying a multiplier (discounted or boosted) stand in when the app has no standard line, with the easier side's multiplier under the line, such as 0.88x. NO keeps plain 1x standard lines only.
- Search players with the / key. On a phone each row is a card with a strip of every book's line, the best play highlighted.
Reading a row, column by column
| Column | Example | What it tells you |
|---|---|---|
| Player · Stat · League | Name, start time, matchup · Points | What's being compared; the league has a coloured dot. |
| Market avg | 24.7 | Mean main line of the two-sided sportsbooks. |
| Fair line | 24.5 | The 50/50 point of the fitted fair ladder. |
| Book and app columns | PrizePicks ↓22.5, BetMGM ↑25.5 | Pick'em apps first, then sportsbooks. A line 0.25+ from the market avg is an arrow chip: green = lowest line (easiest over), amber = highest (easiest under). |
| Best play | OVER 22.5 · PrizePicks | The easier side of the most extreme line. |
| To hit | 59.0% | Fair chance the best play clears; the default sort, highest first. |
The footer shows how many player markets match and their average to hit.
Opening a row
Click a row for its drawer. The Line spread track places every book along the line axis, with a gold tick at the market average. Each book's card is labelled EASIEST OVER, MIDDLE LINE or EASIEST UNDER, with the line, any multiplier, the prices (or "pick'em line") and the fair over and under there. The best play reads PREFERRED · OVER 22.5, and How this is ranked shows the math. Comparing main lines can miss a book whose alternates are all shaded; the fair ladder prices any point.
How to use it
- Set your books. Point Book: at the books and apps you can play.
- Open a top row. Check whether the outlier is a lone book.
- Price it. For pick'em, compare To hit with the entry's per-leg break-even in the pick'em break-even calculator; for a sportsbook, compare the fair with the price you're paid.
Pitfalls
- Stale lines. The most common discrepancy is a book that hasn't moved after news (an injury, a role change). Check the news first.
- Different stat definitions. Make sure the books grade the same stat the same way.
- Multiplier lines. A 0.88x line is easier because it pays less.
- A gap is a lead, not an edge. Always price it.
Open the tool
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