On this page
What alerts will be
Coming soon Alerts are not built yet. The plan is a members-only Discord channel that posts when the engine finds a new edge that clears a threshold: a +EV price, an arbitrage, a low-hold market, a middle or a prop discrepancy. Alerts are information only. Nothing places a bet for you, and there's no betting automation.
Until alerts ship, the same kinds of edges are on screen whenever you open the site: the Home dashboard's Top +EV now and Best arbitrage cards, the +EV finder sorted by EV, and the Arbitrage, Low Hold and Middles screens.
How alerts are planned to work
- Thresholds per alert type. For example a minimum EV for +EV prices, a minimum locked return for arbs, a maximum hold for low-hold markets.
- The same quality gates as the tools. Min books, the fair source (exact line or modelled), thin and off-market flags.
- Rate limits so the channel stays readable.
- Net prices. Exchange and prediction-market prices in alerts use the net price after fees, like every tool.
- Logged at first sight. Flagged edges are logged when first seen and graded against the closing line, the same record that feeds the public track record.
Worked example: why thresholds should use net prices
Imagine an alert set to fire at 3% EV. A Kalshi contract on a side the market prices at 55% is offered at 52¢.
Before fees: 0.55 × (1 ÷ 0.52) − 1 = 0.55 × 1.9231 − 1 = +5.77%
After the taker fee on a $100 order (net decimal 1.8605): 0.55 × 1.8605 − 1 = +2.33%
On quoted prices this would fire; on net prices it doesn't clear 3%. The fee is real money, so the alert should judge the net price.
Planned alert types and what they measure
| Alert | Engine measure | Natural threshold |
|---|---|---|
| +EV price | EV = fair × net decimal − 1 | Minimum EV, with Min books |
| Arbitrage | Locked return = 1 ÷ Σ(1 ÷ net decimal) − 1 | Minimum return |
| Low hold | Hold = Σ(1 ÷ best net decimal) − 1 | Maximum hold |
| Middle | EV of the pair over the fair distribution | Minimum pair EV or window |
| Prop discrepancy | Gap to the consensus line, as a % | Minimum gap |
The same fee rule applies to arbs. A two-way arb at +108 / −102 locks +1.45% between two sportsbooks. Move the +108 leg to ProphetX, which takes 2% of net winnings, and the locked return falls to +0.93%. An arb alert set at 1% should stay silent on the second one.
Alerts are planned as members-only from day one, posted to a private Discord channel through a webhook. The market tools themselves stay free with a free account during launch, so the same edges remain visible on the site to anyone signed in.
Acting on an alert
- Check the time. Prices refresh on a schedule, not continuously. An alert can be minutes old by the time you read it.
- Open the row on the site to see the fair source, Books at line and the "Why this is +EV" math.
- Confirm the price at the book before betting.
- Size with your own settings. Kelly from your bankroll, not someone else's.
What an alert is planned to contain
An alert is only useful if you can check it in seconds. Each one is planned to carry:
- The selection, the market and line, the game and its start time.
- The book and the price, with the net price after fees for exchanges and prediction markets.
- The EV (or the locked return, hold or window, depending on the alert type) and the fair odds.
- How the fair was built: exact line or modelled, and how many books back it.
- When the price was collected, so you know how old it is.
- A link to the row on the site, where the full math lives.
Offshore books won't be named as places to bet in alerts; they stay odds only, as everywhere on the site.
Why rate limits
A channel that posts every small edge trains people to ignore it. Rate limits and per-type thresholds keep the channel to the edges that clear your bar, and the same edge won't be re-posted every time the collector refreshes. If a price gets better after the first alert, that's worth knowing; if it merely persists, it isn't.
Pitfalls
- Stale lines. The fastest edges vanish quickly; an alert is a prompt to check, not a guarantee the price is still there.
- Limits. Many people seeing the same alert at the same book can move or limit the line.
- Thin exchange markets. The first person to act may take all the size.
- Modelled fairs deserve more caution than exact-line fairs.
Try the math yourself
Every calculator is free, needs no account and uses the same engine as our tools.